Abstract
This study focuses on the impact of utilizing gas, coal and nuclear for longterm power generation on generation cost, emission and resource availability. A scenario-based energy accounting model has been applied for creating long-term future scenarios. A baseline scenario has been created on the basis of the existing power development plan (PDP). Three alternative scenarios of coal, nuclear and gas options have been projected for the period beyond the PDP, i.e. 2022-2030. The results indicate that nuclear has high potential for GHG mitigation and cost reduction. For coal option, the benefit of cost reduction would be diminished at carbon price above 40 USD/ton. However, clean technology development as well as the momentum of global trend will be the key factor for coal utilization.
The results also show the need of fuel diversification in term of the natural gas reserve depletion. It is clearly seen that natural gas supply in Thailand would inevitably depends very much on the LNG import in long-term. Hence, attraction of natural gas in term of cheap domestic resource utilization will be vanished.
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